In this article, I aim to simplify the complex concept of expected utility, a fundamental idea in decision-making under uncertainty. By using everyday language and engaging analogies, I hope to demystify this abstract topic and make it accessible to a broad audience.
Expected utility is a mathematical framework used to evaluate the likelihood of different outcomes in a decision-making process. It helps individuals weigh the potential risks and rewards of their choices by assigning probabilities to each outcome and calculating the average expected value. This concept is essential in economics, finance, and insurance, where decision-makers must make informed decisions based on uncertain events.
To explain expected utility, I use a simple analogy: imagine you are a chef running a restaurant. Your customers can choose from different dishes, each with a probability of being served. The expected utility of a dish is like the average price customers pay for that dish, taking into account its probability of being served. A higher expected utility means a higher average price, which could encourage customers to select that dish more often.
The article delves deeper into the mathematical formulation of expected utility, using a formula that combines probabilities and utilities. This formula allows decision-makers to calculate the expected value of each outcome and compare them to make informed decisions. The author also discusses the limitations of expected utility theory and its application in various fields, including finance and economics.
In conclusion, expected utility is a powerful tool for evaluating uncertain events and making informed decisions. By using everyday language and analogies, I hope to have demystified this complex concept and provided readers with a better understanding of how it works.
Mathematics, Optimization and Control