The article discusses a new approach to decision-making called "Expert Judgment" that can help individuals overcome the limitations of traditional decision-making methods. Expert Judgment involves gathering information from multiple experts and calculating their weights based on their perceived accuracy. The authors propose a new method for evaluating expert opinions, which they call the "Comprehensive Objective Weight" (COW). This method considers both the quality of the expert’s judgment and the uncertainty associated with that judgment.
The authors explain that traditional decision-making methods often rely on individual intuition or group consensus, which can lead to suboptimal decisions. Expert Judgment offers a way to overcome these limitations by combining the collective wisdom of multiple experts. However, calculating the weights of each expert is not as simple as adding their opinions together. The authors propose using a new method called "Distributed Weighted Average" (DWA) to calculate the COW.
The DWA method involves creating a matrix of weights for each expert based on their perceived accuracy and uncertainty. This matrix is then multiplied by the experts’ opinions to obtain an overall weighted average. The authors demonstrate how this method can be applied in practice using real-world examples from various industries, including financial services, healthcare, and engineering.
The article also discusses the limitations of the DWA method and suggests ways to improve it, such as incorporating additional information like past performance or expert reputation. The authors conclude by emphasizing the importance of considering both the accuracy and uncertainty associated with each expert’s opinion when making a decision. They argue that this approach can lead to better decisions and more robust decision-making processes.
Overall, the article provides a comprehensive overview of Expert Judgment and its potential applications in various industries. It demystifies complex concepts by using everyday language and engaging analogies or metaphors. The balance between simplicity and thoroughness is well maintained throughout the summary without oversimplifying the main ideas.
